It is welcome to note that our exports are slowly but steadily picking up since last year.  And the latest is the IMF report, which anticipates Pakistan’s exports will be up from $30.84bn in FY24 to $32.35bn in FY25.

The most positive aspect of this report is that the growth in exports is antiicpated to continue for the years to come.

It may be recalled here thatd the previous caretaker government had specailly focused on the export sector with to increasing earnings from this vital sector. For this, it also took several all-out actions, one them was releasing maximum sales tax refunds to those related with the export sector.

Meanwhile, the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry has come up with an Economic Revival Think Tank under the chairmanship of   former caretaker minister Gohar Ejaz. The task force has been given the task to identify areas for policy improvement with a view to to reviving the  ailing economic and enhance the exports.

Only during the three months of October to December, the volume of exports increased by one billion dollars. If this trend continues, there are bright prospects of improvement in the trade balance and foreign exchange reserves by the end of June 2024.

On the positive side is  the government decisin to have given tax exemption on IT exports till 2025 and one may advise the Govt to continue with this exemptoin so that the IT exports can be flourished.

In the early years of the establishment of Pakistan, the country major part of the exports consisted of agricultural products. Due to the industrial process, its local consumption gradually increased. Later, the loss factor prevailed due to political disturbances and poor planning. Due to the neglect of the agricultural sector, the overall agricultural production has been declining for the last two decades. Today, Pakistan is forced to import raw materials at very expensive prices to meet its industrial needs.  The huge increase in energy prices during recent years has made up for it, but we can improve this whole situation because there is extraordinary potential in natural resources.

There is no dearth of industrious manpower, multi-faceted cottage industries are prevalent from one end of the country to the other which need encouragement and patronage.

Small and medium industries not only have their own uniqueness but many of these products are required by large industries.  Proper and frequent encouragement of them can revolutionize the export sector. And the good news is that the trade volume between the long-term friends Pakistan and China is on the rise, showing a significant confidence of the people of both sides. According to a media report, Pakistan imported goods worth 30 million and 50 million dollars to China. This volume is 100.5% more than in September 2022. In September 2023, Pakistan's total exports to all partner countries were recorded at 2.465 billion dollars, in which China's share was 14.20 percent. In the scenario of the financial year 2023-24, the export sector is showing good growth, according to which in July to September (first quarter) Its volume for all partner countries reached 6.899 billion dollars and China's share is also significant in this.

Behind this encouraging situation, the agricultural sector has a key position, as much as it suffered from the flood disasters last year. In contrast, this year saw record harvests of cotton, wheat and rice, increasing the demand for basmati rice in the global market. It is being neglected, which India has taken unfair advantage of and is selling it to the world under the name of Himalayan salt by buying sugarcane from Pakistan.

Due to the surplus, large production of sugar seems possible, but proper attention is needed on the industrial sector.

Unfortunately, hoarding, smuggling and corruption have taken the form of a parallel illegal economy in the country, which is constantly increasing in size.

However, the previous catertaker Govt steps against smuggling prove beneificial and the anti-trafficking operation launched by the previous caretaker government must be continued by the current government aswell to the end goal and this does not appear to be possible without the eradication of corruption at the official level.

As a matter of fact, Pakistan's economy, suffering from trade imbalance, is currently limited to benefiting from the agricultural sector to the extent that it has to export a large part of its rice production instead of meeting its domestic needs. But with due efforts, the export of agri products can be increased and at the same time, the local needs can also be fulfilled. At present Basmati rice is being sold at an average of Rs 300 to 380 per kg domestically.  On the other hand, its demand has been increasing rapidly at the global level. According to the latest report, due to the extraordinary harvest this year, the export of basmati rice seems to reach 5 million tons compared to last year's 4 million tons, which will earn three billion dollars in foreign exchange.  Currently, Indian rice is banned in the world market for various reasons, one of which is that Basmati rice, which is produced only in Pakistan, India tried to cheat by giving this name to its production. 

The positive thing in this regard is that the Govt is aware of the potential of this sector and is also  aware of the problems faced by this sector, so a comprehensive efforts on the part of the Govt can  get bring about a good change in the export sector. If the problems faced by the the export sector in the country are solved, our exports can be taken up to substantially annually. Significant progress can be made towards making them economically independent.

It is good to see that the Ministry of Commerce has been asked by the Govt to frame a comprehensive strategy to double the country's exports in the next five years and for this it is vital to consult and approach the relevant stakeholders and entrepreneurs to form strategy to deal with the unprecedented economic and financial challenges.

Published in The Daily National Courier, April, 04 2024

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