IMF connection endures: Pakistan's persistent tether despite economic shifts

Business Nov, 17 2023
IMF connection endures: Pakistan's persistent tether despite economic shifts
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Interim Finance Minister Dr. Shamshad Akhtar highlighted Pakistan's need for a prolonged IMF program and emphasized the necessity of raising electricity and gas prices to meet ongoing bailout package conditions, attributing the country's "fragile" economic stability and high external risks as grounds for the 25th IMF bailout package.

Following discussions concluding a $700 million tranche for a total $1.6 billion from international financial institutions, Dr. Shamshad postponed plans for $1.5 billion Eurobonds due to unfavorable conditions. Pakistan's reliance on the IMF is anticipated due to low domestic revenues and substantial external financing needs, leaning towards a potential Extended Fund Facility (EFF) despite no formal discussions yet.

The minister underscored the precarious economic stability, emphasizing the imperative to boost domestic revenues and exports. Mentioning looming external risks like geopolitical tensions, Afghanistan's situation, soaring commodity prices, and stringent global financial conditions, she stressed the need to focus on macroeconomic stability.

Acknowledging the upcoming $1 billion bond repayment in April, Dr. Shamshad deferred further Eurobond issuance due to high interest rates. While Finance Secretary Imdadullah Bosal hinted at negotiations for foreign commercial loans, he refrained from sharing specifics.

Amid discussions of a potential $600 million loan from Chinese banks and escalating circular debt, the minister indicated an impending hike in gas prices in January, following November's substantial increase to recover additional revenue. Plans to privatize power distribution companies were also mentioned.

Despite the absence of a confirmed IMF board meeting date, Dr. Shamshad highlighted the significance of international partners' support for external sector stability, anticipating about $1 billion in funding from ADB, AIIB, and the World Bank post-IMF review approval.

The minister outlined improvements in fiscal and external sectors and mentioned ongoing conditions for board approval. Despite economic improvements since July, Pakistan remains focused on fiscal consolidation and expanding the tax base. Additionally, plans include increased stipends for Benazir Income Support Program recipients and a windfall tax on banks to boost revenue.

Regarding parliamentarian schemes, the finance secretary assured adherence to the election commission's policy. Dr. Shamshad dismissed the possibility of a mini-budget but hinted at contingency measures if FBR collections fall short.

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