JOHANNESBURG: Infant mortality rises and life expectancy falls when sovereign debt defaults are not quickly resolved, study said as negotiations to restructure debts of countries including Zambia, Sri Lanka and Ghana drag on.

In countries that have come out of default within three years since 1900, infant deaths were 2.2 percentage points higher than if they had not defaulted, according to study by researchers Clemens Graf von Luckner and Juan Farah-Yacoub.

In defaults that dragged on for more than three years and lasted for an average of decade, infant mortality was 11.4 percentage points higher, they found. Life expectancy was 1.5 percentage points lower, on average, decade after default, with figure worsening for longer instances.

Covid-19 endemic tipped number of countries including Zambia into default, while rising global interest rates and inflation fuelled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed others over edge.

In response to endemic in 2020, G20 nations launched 'Common Framework' restructuring process. It has been used by Zambia, Ethiopia, Chad and Ghana but has yet to secure resounding success, with China and multiple commercial creditors complicating negotiations.

Published in The Daily National Courier, June, 22 2023

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