The fact that the government is trying hard to overcome the economic crisis cannot be ignored. Special attention is being given to increasing investment, reducing the gap between imports and exports, reducing the trade deficit, completely eliminating all forms of corruption and removing all kinds of obstacles in the way of business, resulting in a gradual improvement in the economic situation.

The signs have started to appear. Thanks to the government's initiatives, the fiscal deficit has been limited to 0.8 percent of the gross national product in the first four months of the current financial year. Revenues have increased and primary surplus is improving due to reduction in non-interest expenses.

According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, in the first four months of this financial year, the financial deficit has been recorded at 861.7 billion rupees, which was 1265.8 billion rupees in the same period of the previous financial year.

The total federal revenue from July to October is 2806.6 billion rupees which was 1316.8 billion rupees in the same period last year.

Non-tax revenue contributed significantly to the increase in revenue, which witnessed a 300 percent increase. FBR revenue recorded a growth of 29%. The rate of collection of federal excise duty was 62.8 percent and that of direct taxes was 42.2 percent. Total expenses increased by 35%. Running costs have grown at a rate of 44 percent, with markup payments accounting for a higher share.

Pakistan's economic crisis is rooted in chronic fiscal deficit and any initiative to overcome it should be welcomed. A lot needs to be done to end the mounting debt and foreign exchange crisis.

Another good news the increase in our forreign exchange reserves which must be maintained.

According to the sttistics of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), in the last business week of the last year, foreign exchange reserves regisgtered an upward trend by increasing by 364.9 million dollars, standing at 13 billion 22 million dollars which shows a visible positive change.

Reserves of the State Bank recorded an increase by 464.1 million dollars to eight billion twentytwo million dollars.

Likewise, the deposits of commercial banks also increased by as much as 99.2 million dollars.

The positive trend on the economic front is a good thing, but it cannot be taken for granted and the Government must proceed with business-friendly steps so that the boom continues.

Due to the investment agreements of billions of dollars in various sectors by the United Arab Emirates, a huge boom took place in the Pakistan Stock Exchange last month, which broke all previous records of the 100 index and for the first time in the history of the country, the index reached the milestone of 61 thousand points.

It has been crossed, which has increased by 20,830 points this year. On Tuesday too, the index reached 60,730 points. 63% share prices had increased while the value of shares increased by 98 billion 10 crore 14 lakh 24 thousand rupees.

The total amount of capital has become 87 trillion 46 billion 11 crore 45 lakh rupees. More boom was seen in the banking sector. Traditionally the sector has been a favorite for foreign investment, with cement, energy and fertilizers also seeing big purchases. Experts say that the forecast of the index reaching the level of 75 thousand points with a growth of 30% by December is proving to be encouraging for the market. The morale of the capitalists is rising as the news of financing of one and a half billion dollars expected from multi-donors is circulating which is driving the market graph towards higher. Expectations of receiving the second tranche under the IMF program, positive news like reduction in interest rates and better political situation are also reasons for the increase. Around the world when stock market points increase, the resources obtained from it are used for economic development and setting up industries etc. Is it not possible for us that the government should ensure the use of capital that is rapidly gained in the stock market for growing new crops and setting up industries so that the country can stand on its feet economically.  Unfortunately, the stock market has started to be considered as a reason for speculation and profiteering. And that aspect needs to be taken care of.

The analysts attribute the boom at Pakistan Stock Exchange to business friendly environment in the country right now. In fact, Actions by the caretaker government, IMF's confidence in Pakistan and chances of finalizing policy-level talks, expectations of receiving $700 million from the IMF by December and $25 billion in Pakistan from a major UAE firm are good news.  And it is due to this positive development that the stock exchange is touching new heights and is setting new records.

The PSX  has reached this level gradually and in the month of November, its Hundred index crossed the psychological threshold of 56 thousand points setting a new record in the Pakistan Stock Exchange on the first day of the business week after the investment news of  foreign firms in Pakistan. Yes, in the first week of November, the total volume of capital in the market increased to 80 trillion 82 billion 2 crore 67 lakh, 66 crore 6 lakh 49 thousand shares worth 22 billion rupees were traded.

The investors were on cloud nine when theysaid that the 100 index closed at 55,391 points on the last day of the last business week. The stock market hitting all-time highs is a sign that potential profit-taking is encouraged and the positive trend continues.

And now crossing a new high of 61,000 after an increase of 1132.22 points has increased the chances of a fresh move.

In early November, after the date of general elections was agreed between the President and the Chief Election Commissioner, the index in the Pakistan Stock Exchange crossed the limit of 53 thousand points after 6 and a half years and since then this increase has been seen continuously, but the question that is also whether the stock market will be able to sustain this bullish trend.  However, many an analyst believe that Pakistan is in the IMF program and has no choice but structural reforms, moderation in oil prices, gradual restoration of imports and dividends and tight fiscal policy, but capital from the high interest rate bargain stock market can shy away investors which can be detrimental to stock exchange trading and share businesses.

Published in The Daily National Courier, January, 07 2024

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