It is very ironic that with about 21 million hectares of land under cultivation, Pakistan has been importing food items including wheat and other gains etc. In fact, there has been stagnation in this sector for the past two decades. Estimates suggest that the value of production from irrigation systems, if properly managed, could increase from the current $70 billion to $200 billion. Despite having so much power, Pakistan spends about $10 billion of its meager foreign exchange to import cotton, wheat, sugar, edible oil, milk powder, pulses.

The most recent period from 2007 to 2022 shows a dismal record, averaging 2 percent. That is, its growth rate is less than the increase in population. Per capita food availability also increased in the first sixty years as cereal crop production increased more than the rate of population. In the past few years, domestic production has barely kept up with the consumption of the growing population and has resorted to imports. 3.

In the food trade balance of Pakistan in fiscal year 2022. There was a loss of 6 billion dollars. Floods, rising global commodity prices, exchange rate depreciation, domestic inflation, growing population and stagnant food production have exacerbated food insecurity. Higher domestic production of wheat and rice will make food grains cheaper and improve their supply. Government procurement and producer price support schemes have also contributed to widening the income gap as large farmers benefit from preferential treatment and subsidies. If the average production of wheat had increased at the rate of the period from 1965 to 1995, production would have reached 40 million tons in 2022. Prices for consumers would have been stable, higher incomes from wheat-based products would have been possible, and foreign exchange could have been earned from international trade.

Pakistan’s past experiences show that whenever the agricultural growth rate was above the threshold of 4.5-5.0 percent, positive changes in income distribution and poverty rate were recorded. Thus, the proposed high growth strategy for the agricultural sector outlined below, if conscientiously implemented, should be able to address most of the issues and guide Pakistan’s future development in the context of demographic, technological and climate change threats.  Due to decades of neglect by successive governments, Pakistan’s agriculture sector is in doldrums. Not long ago, the share of agriculture in the national GDP was around 27 pc which has reduced by 8 per cent down to only 19pc in less than 20 years.  Moreover, it has always been the main sector which engaged most of Pakistan’s labor directly and indirectly but due to decades of neglect, this vital economic sector has been left in the lurch, consequently landing the country in a situation to face shortage of even staple food crops like the wheat and sugarcane.

It is ironical that Pakistan has reached a point to import these two items from abroad to meet the food requirements of its population. The Government should work on agri-friendly policies with a view to updating the agri norms to create conducive environment in which farmers get a fair return on their produce remains unfulfilled. It is mainly the food import bills that have risen by a substantial amount i.e., over 22 per cent. Seemingly the imports are outpacing our exports and the gap continues to be widening.

According to the statistics by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS),   we spent over $8 billion on import of edible items in the last financial year.  The import of wheat, sugar, palm oil, tea, pulses, dried fruits, milk and other food items witnessed a massive growth, indicating a shortage in domestic production.

As a result, the prices of  eatables like vegetable ghee and cooking oil went up during the last few months for local consumers, and other items are likely to register a substantial increase in terms of prices.  Just imagine, wheat is our staple food, but we are  importing the same.  Top on it, Pakistan is also prone to extreme weather and disasters which may affect our production capacity and the government has no plan to overcome the climate change effects on our agriculture.  The agriculture sector requires urgent steps with a view to base it on technological ground but no plan is afoot right now.

Whether it is irrigation system or the seed selection to plantation practices and harvesting methods, every sector needs an overhaul, which is necessary for increasing per acre yields.

The government must focus its attention on such extremely crucial matters, so that to secure the interests of farmers and consumers, to overcome dwindling exports as well as the rising current account deficit. Besides, it will enable us to overcome the inflated food import bill.

The continued sidelining of the agri sector can pose a potential threat in the food sector and may affect the economic sustainability and stability in the long run.

Financial experts say that documentation of the informal sector in the economic is also needed on urgent basis. This will not only broaden the tax net, but will also discourage the existing mafias in the market, and will result in improved quality of both goods and services in the long run.

It may be noted here that the government must focus on steps like allocation of substantial funds for increasing per acre yield, overcoming the wastage of foods and setting up mega stores for storing staple food items like wheat and sugar.

As the per acre agriculture yield is decreasing resulting in declining agricultural incomes, the dwellers of rural areas are shifting to urban centres in search of new ways of earnings and better lifestyle. That’s why our country has the highest rate of urbanization in entire South Asia.

Published in The Daily National Courier, April, 07 2023

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